Pakistan vs England 3rd ODI Preview: Prediction, Probable XIs & Key Battles
The tri-series moves to Lahore, and the stakes could hardly be higher. On Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 pm PKT (toss 12:30 pm), Pakistan meet England in the 3rd ODI of the Pakistan ODI Tri-Series 2026 at Gaddafi Stadium — a match that could effectively decide the tournament. Pakistan are 2-0 and unbeaten; a win books their place in the October 31 final. England are 0-2 after back-to-back Rawalpindi defeats and are playing for survival. This is the rematch of Tuesday's 87-run thumping — and England have spent three days stewing on it.
The storylines write themselves. Pakistan's young all-rounder Arafat Minhas destroyed England in Rawalpindi with 59 and 6 for 40 — only the third Pakistani ever with a fifty and a five-for in the same ODI. England's response, two days later, was to post a mammoth 429 for 4 against Sri Lanka — and still lose, as the Islanders hunted it down with two balls to spare in the second-highest successful ODI chase against England ever. So England's batters are in the form of their lives, and their bowlers are leaking at nearly nine an over. Something has to give in Lahore.
📊 TRI-SERIES POINTS TABLE — before the Lahore leg
Top two after six league games reach the October 31 final. A Pakistan win on Sunday puts them on 6 points — out of reach of England.
| Team | P | W | L | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | W, W |
| Sri Lanka | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | L, W |
| England | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | L, L |
Head-to-Head: Pakistan Just Ended England's Run
The long ledger still favours England — 57 wins to Pakistan's 33 across 93 ODIs — but the momentum has just flipped. England had won the last four meetings between these sides, most recently at Eden Gardens during the 2023 World Cup. Pakistan's 87-run demolition in Rawalpindi on October 20 ended that streak emphatically, and with it went the psychological edge England had carried into the tour. The history Harry Brook is still fighting: England have not enjoyed one-day success in Pakistan since the famous 1987-88 tour.
Team News: England's Bowlers Under the Microscope
England arrived with three straight bilateral ODI series wins behind them; they leave Rawalpindi with two defeats and an attack that just conceded 430 to Sri Lanka. Jos Buttler misses the tour with a hamstring injury picked up against Sri Lanka at Headingley — cruel timing after he became the first England batter to reach 10,000 international white-ball runs. Jofra Archer is being rested to manage his workload and Jacob Bethell is sidelined. The cavalry is already in: Adil Rashid has returned from a hand injury, Sam Curran from a groin problem, leg-spinner Mason Crane earned an ODI recall nearly nine years after his only international appearance (that solitary Test in Sydney in the 2017-18 Ashes), Sussex pair James Coles and Henry Crocombe have been called up, and seamer Sonny Baker — reverse-swing and death-over yorkers — has been drafted in for Archer.
Pakistan have the luxury of stability. There is no reason to break up a winning side: Fakhar Zaman, Saim Ayub, Babar Azam, Saad Baig (wk), Hasan Nawaz, Salman Agha, Arafat Minhas, Faheem Ashraf, and the pace trio of Shaheen Shah Afridi (c), Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf. Shadab Khan and Sufiyan Moqim, who missed the opener through illness, are back in the mix — but after two wins, the selectors may well leave well alone.
"Both departments are complementing each other really well." — Shaun Tait, Pakistan bowling coach, on the 2-from-2 start
Three Players in the Spotlight
Arafat Minhas (Pakistan). The find of the tournament so far. His 59 and 6 for 40 against England in Rawalpindi made him only the third Pakistani — after Shahid Afridi and Abdul Razzaq — with a fifty and a five-for in the same ODI, and the 25th man in history to do it. England's batters have had three days to study the footage. Great players announce themselves twice.
Joe Root (England). His 20th ODI hundred — 111 not out in the Rawalpindi run-fest — came in a losing cause, which tells you England's problem is not their batting. Root's game against spin on a Lahore surface that traditionally grips could be the difference between a competitive total and another shootout England's bowlers cannot defend.
Babar Azam (Pakistan). Quietly, the great man is finding form at the right time. With the crowd behind him at Gaddafi and England's attack low on confidence, this is the stage Babar owns — and a defining innings here would all but carry Pakistan into the final.
Five Battles That Will Decide It
- Minhas vs England's middle order, round two. England know what is coming now — left-arm spin with drift and a batter who counterattacks. Their plan B is the whole game.
- The new ball under Lahore lights. Shaheen Afridi and Naseem Shah with the white ball against an England top order that scores fast but has looked vulnerable early.
- Root vs Pakistan's spinners. If Root bats through the middle overs against Abrar, Salman and Minhas, England post 320-plus. If Pakistan's spinners win that duel, England are in trouble.
- Babar vs Rashid. Adil Rashid is back, and his leg-spin against Babar Azam's footwork is the highest-quality match-up of the afternoon.
- Death overs: England's 430 problem. England's attack conceded 430/8 on Thursday. Haris Rauf and Naseem at the death, with a Lahore crowd roaring, is the examination.
✅ Key takeaways
- Final on the line: a Pakistan win seals their October 31 final spot; England must win to stay realistically alive.
- Form guide: Pakistan 2-0 (beat SL by 37, ENG by 87); England 0-2 (lost to PAK, then conceded 430 to SL).
- Watch: Arafat Minhas after his 59 & 6/40; Joe Root after his 20th ODI ton; Babar Azam at his favourite venue.
🗳️ Fan question: Pakistan 3-0, or England's great escape?
The hosts are unbeaten and one win from the final — but England just posted 429/4 and their batters are due. Who takes the Lahore showdown? Tell us on our socials.
Prediction
Pakistan at home, with this pace attack, this crowd and a final on the line, are clear favourites — but write off England's batting at your peril. Expect another high-scoring Lahore night that goes deep into the second innings. For ball-by-ball coverage, follow the official match centre at ESPNcricinfo's tri-series hub, and read our full tournament guide before the toss.